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Jeffraham Prestonian

Linda: "I am saying they claim to allow free speech."

So now, what I have is YOUR claim ABOUT THEIR claim. I see.

I know of exactly one right-wing blog that allows open commenting -- THIS one. I used to hang out on electionprojection.com, but Scott couldn't handle the undisciplined folks who couldn't keep from cursing to make a point, so he shut his comments section down.

On the left, nearly all the personal blogs have open commenting. I could name a dozen, but then I'd have to hear them complain about me tipping you off to them. ;)
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RocketPunch

Linda - google BUSH LOYALTY OATH and you will get more info then you could hope to read. The practice has lessened in the past weeks. It got a LOT of criticism and I believe it was discouraging crowd size.

melior

Jeff, Alan Keyes called Mary a "selfish hedonist". You'll notice that he didn't use the L-word. And selfishness isn't prohibited by one of the 10 Commandments (just coveting, which is different I think) like being a homoseksual is.

melior

And I don't think this is a "right-wing blog". It's just that all the others are left-wing, like all the news stations are left-wing except for Fox News.

Jeffraham Prestonian

melior -- And Fox News is "centrist."
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Linda

Admittedly there are rabid crazies on both side, witness Christianvote above. I am just looking for a Kerry supportor to honestly tell me why Kerry is the better man - without going into a hate Bush commercial. I already know Bush has done EVERYTHING wrong. What is Kerry going to do better? I am convinced that no democrats really want Kerry, they just want anyone but Bush.

rls

Bush will win the popular vote by 53% to 46% and garner 349 Electoral Votes. I base this prediction on several factors that the Polls cannot take into consideration. Factors like the stealth vote for Bush, the highly successful GOTV campaign that the Republican Party showcased in 2002, the GOTV campaign that the NRA has set up for this election, the single issue voters, who have multiple single issues that all favor Bush and the desertion of the Democrats by Black America and the American Jews.

It is amazing to me the number of people who say they are Democrat and have campaign signage for “down the ticket” Democrat candidates, when pressed; say they are going to vote for GWB. These are people who will not tell their left side co-workers and friends that they are voting GWB and some won’t even tell their spouses. Yet, they are out there in the populace by the thousands! And these are the ones that are honest about it. When one looks at the internal of all of the polls - there is one constant - Kerry voters do not like Kerry. A certain portion of those people just are not going to pull the lever for him. There are no stealth Kerry voters. All of his supporters are on record.

The GOTV will be a huge contributing factor to this landslide. In 2000 the GOP did little or nothing to rouse the base and get them to the polls. Part of that had to do with the polling in the final weeks, showing Bush with a comfortable lead; a lot of it was disorganization in the GOP itself. In the mid term elections of 2002 the GOP reorganized and had a solid GOTV campaign. Not all of their candidates were successful, however what did happen was that they all beat their final polls by a 5-8% margin. Basically the GOP solidified the base and had an aggressive program in place to get them to the polls.

Couple this GOTV program, staffed by volunteers; not people being paid to do a job, with the strongest GOP support for any president in history (95% of Republicans polled said they are going to vote for Bush - Reagan had the previous highest at 93%) and you can imagine the increase in votes over 2000.

The NRA also got a wake up call in 2000. They learned that it was not enough just to endorse a candidate and provide some advertising support. They learned that they had to mobilize their base and get their members and non-member supporters to the polls. They have established such an aggressive GOTV campaign that they even have volunteers working in Hollywood and Manhattan. I believe that the NRA will be responsible for swinging Pennsylvania into the Bush column.

The single issue voters are probably the ones that will decide the election. They are going to make the difference in the key swing states. While Bush garners between 65% and 68% favorability of all voters in the prosecution of the War on Terror and the Security Issue, he garners 100% support of the single issue voters (pro life and marriage) in this election. Voters who base their votes on the sanctify of life issue will all vote for Bush, voters who base their votes on the “Protection of Marriage” issue will all vote for Bush in this election. I do not know the breakdown of Catholic votes in the 2000 election; I would imagine that GWB would garner at least 50% of the Catholic vote this time. While single issue voters are a minority in any election, they are enough to tip a battleground state to one side. Michigan and Ohio both have “Protection of Marriage” issues on the ballots and Ohio is heavy in Catholic constituency.

Black Americans are no longer the “automatic vote” of the Democrats. They have, for far too long, been abused by the Democrats and recognized only during the election cycle. Blacks have been told to take their Christian Conservatism and put it aside at election time for the “good of the Black Community”. They have been told that they need to see the “wider picture” of the “greater good” that the Democrats do for the Black Community and separate that from their Christian beliefs. They have been denigrated by the Democrats by the constant reminder that Blacks cannot achieve without the help of the government - and the Democrats need to be in power in order for that help to be there.

Not this year! Black America is rebelling. Large Black churches are becoming a political force. The Black Christian community will vote their conscience - against abortion and against same sex marriage. Polls reflect a two fold increase in Bush support over 2000 - from 9% to 18%; and I predict that it will be closer to 30%. The economy is not an issue in this election - all economic indicators are on the upswing, inflation is held in check with a 4% increase in GDP, unemployment is about the same as in the 90s boom, job growth is continuing, Bush’s “ownership” society rings real with Black America (Black home ownership at an all time high) and the Dems have no bribe to hold out to the Black Community. Black America is waking up to the reality that the Liberal Agenda can only be achieved by Conservative methods. I think someone once called this “Compassionate Conservatism”.

The Jewish voters know who the best friend of Israel is. No doubt that the Israeli-Palestinian issue is big with Jewish voters. Kerry has made it plain that he will not be as strong a supporter of Israel as GWB is. Former NY Mayor Ed Koch is campaigning for Bush and has made it clear that Israel’s future and the Palestine issue is directly tied to the reelection of GWB. I expect that Bush will double the Jewish vote over the 2000 election. That will take Florida into the Bush column.

I know, I know, what about all of the first time voters? What about the Dems GOTV program? What about all of the polls showing an even race? I do not dismiss the first time voters and the impact that they will have on the election - it is just that everyone assumes that all of the first time voters are Kerry supporters. Nothing could be farther from the truth. IA, MI, OH, MN & WI all have the highest voter registrations in history, but the GOP has matched the Donkey party one for one in newly registered voters. See up above; the massive GOTV by the GOP will guarantee that first time GOP voters outnumber first time Dem voters. Percentage wise the GOP new registrants will vote probably two to one over the new Dem registrants. Surely you do not think that, though registered in OH, that Mary Poppins, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck are actually going to show up and vote? My point is that the newly registered GOP voters are real registered voters and the newly registered Dems are just names on a registration roll.

The Dems have a GOTV program that is, as John Kerry would say, outsourced - to a 527 group. The 527 group is paying people to participate. In other words, the 527 group is hiring people to GOTV!! Compare that with the GOP 96 hour program that is staffed by all volunteers - motivated volunteers. One on one, person to person, who do you think will do the best job? There needs to be passion and motivation to knock on doors; to take people to the polls and back - and do it again and again. Hired hands in a gun fight just do not have the motivation as someone fighting for a principle. The Republican GOTV program, organized and coordinated by volunteers, beat the 527 GOTV program hands down.

The polls themselves cannot show the effects of first time voters and the success or failure of the GOTV program. Plus they are but a heartbeat in a pulse count. It is in the interest of the media to have a “too close to call” election. I’m not saying that they are skewing the polls; hell, I don’t even know if that is possible. What they are doing is skewing the poll results. Bush has maintained a poll average lead from 3-5 points over the last couple of months, yet none of the media mentions that Bush maintains momentum. None of the media crow that Bush has broken the “mythical’ reelection threshold of 50%. The polls just do not have the ability to accurately interpret the results, when sampling 600-1200 voters, of the first time voters, the stealth Bush voters and the success of the GOTV program. In this election they are anachronistic.

Now I will add my own humble opinions. Kerry has a base of approximately 40% of registered voters comprised of the “Bushhitler, anybody but Bush, Bush is evil, Kool-Aid drinking, yellow dog Democrat voter. No way is Bush going to pry one vote from that crowd. I also believe that thoughtful, decent people can disagree about the War in Iraq - the need for it and the prosecution of it. There are people who are extreme pacifists that are not in Kerry’s base that will vote for him - not because they like him, but because he is on record for getting the troops home as soon as possible. So let’s say that that puts Kerry at 43-44%. Where the hell is he going to get the rest of the votes?

He certainly, from the polls anyway, is not going to get the “Commander in Chief”-“Security Issue” votes. He may pick up a few “Same sex marriage” votes and the limited single issue pro-choice votes; so say he has 46-47% of the vote. There just is no place else to go to get votes - who does he appeal to? I give the American people more credit for objectivity than most people do. They know the vacillating, nuanced, multilateral, pro choice, gay union, prevaricating, soft on defense, anti-war candidate that he is. They also know the steadfast, faith based, sanctity of life, strong on defense straight shooting candidate that Bush is. Who do you think they will vote for?

One last tidbit- follow the money. People that do polls make money off of polling. People who bet on the winner of an election rarely bet money that they expect to loose. The British bookies at Betfair have received over 2.3 million pounds bet on Bush to be reelected while taking only 680,000 pounds on Kerry. Current odds for Bush are 5 to 1 in favor - for Kerry 2 to 1 against. They had the money right on the Australian election and the Governor’s race in California. Also reports of early voting in definite red states such as Georgia and Texas indicate waits in line as long as 4 to 5 hours. I can’t imagine that in GA where Bush is up 17 points and TX where Bush is up 22 points that Kerry voters, who do not even like Kerry, are going to stand in line that long to cast a vote that, essentially, doesn’t mean squat. It appears that the GOP base is motivated to not only provide GWB with reelection, but to make sure that the popular vote is there also.

wasted potential

Christianvoter - I doubt you are truly a Christian voter, but someone wanting everyone to think that Bush is not going to get support from his base, a game played by both sides.

What I can speak to is that the Ohio GOP has the pedal to the metal and will finish strong. I have received 5 phone calls from different people and a visit to my door - all since yesterday morning.

At our church, everyone was talking about it and motivated big time. All evangelical Christians I speak to are fired up, motivated and not only voting for Bush, but working for him too.

Good to be in Bush country in the buckeye state!

Jeffraham Prestonian

Linda -- Kerry's strength is his history of public service, both as a prosecutor and a Senator. He has an investigative demeanor... look to his successes in uncovering the BCCI scandal, as one example. That case also showed that he wouldn't let partisanship shield those who commit crimes. The BCCI investigation leads me to believe that Kerry understands how important it is to uncover the elaborate money-laundering schemes on which terrorists and criminals rely in order to carry out their operations. Right now, we have 5x the number of analysts keeping track of Castro's financial transactions than we have on bin Laden's. That doesn't seem right to me.

As a Senator, he has worked tirelessly with the opposition to restore fiscal responsibility, as well, and act as a voice for the concerns of his constituents. I think he's a natural leader, and I expect our country to change for the better when he becomes the 44th President of the United States.
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melior

Kerry can't be the better man, God doesn't talk to him. All he did in the Senate was shutdown the BCCI banking cartel that was funding terrorism, that's not very significant cause it's never talked about on the news. Well okay, he also worked behind the scenes to try to eliminate a lot of the corporate welfare Bush was sending to Big Business, and that's bad for America too.

Kerry hasn't mentioned a single thing he would do different if elected. All he talks about is helping the damn middle class, I think those lucky duckies don't need any more handouts. His health care plan would just be socialized medicine, I'd rather pay more than have the liberals win that one. He says he's going to stop outsourcing jobs too, but then we won't be competitive and the giant trade deficit we've gotten in the last couple years would just get even worse.

Linda

JP - I disagree with you, but I thank you for expressing yourself without using the word Bush :)

RocketPunch

Linda - For democrats, we look at policy first and the measure of the man second. Policy is truly what separates Bush from Kerry to me. It is compacted by Bush's four years of disaster, but even without it, I would have the same views about Kerry. Those who weren't sure about him got fired up during the debates. You have to admit he handled himself very well and I see solutions in his answers from Terrorism to the Environment. For me, especially, I have a great amount of respect for the side of Kerry that Republicans hate the most. I was very moved by a 28 year old Kerry giving his speech on the Hill to testify for the Anti-War movement. I was motivated by his debate with John O'Neil on the Dick Cavitt show. I look at him at 28, I look at me at 28, I look at Bush at 28 and I can't help but respect his accomplishments. Bottom line is, I believe Kerry is the man to get our economy back into shape, improve our standing in the world and help us to start to heal as a nation.

NJDem

Melior,
What cross do the Cheney's have to bare?
There is absolutely *NOTHING* to be shameful about. (except for the fact she supports republican candidates who are ashamed of her)

melior

NJDem, that's not right at all, it hurt Mrs. Cheney deeply that someone would mention that her lesbian daughter who is her husband's campaign manager is a lesbian. I know because she said so over and over and over again so she must have been really crying inside. I'm not the mom of a lesbian daughter so I couldn't possibly understand just how painful that was.

Linda

BEEP! You lose JP. You couldn't do it without mentioning Bush :)

melior

Besides, Mrs. Cheney has written a love story about the horrible suffering that goes on inside a woman who turns against God so much that she loves another woman, just because God made her that way. I think she must know much more about it than those fake Christians who claim we are all God's children.

Linda

It was so blatently transparent that Kerry was only trying to score points. And Cheney was being polite, I'm sure he wanted to deck Edwards.

LupinIII

I keep checking back every 30 minutes and no one except the Kerry supports has answered my question. I have to be honest. I am starting to rethink my support for Bush after reading the back and forth on this blog. I'll hang in there a bit longer if I can and hope for an answer.

melior

Yes, JP, for the last time -- President Bush's record is off limits for this election. It's not about that, or the economy stupid, or are you better off than you were 4 years ago. This is the post-911 era for crying out loud, get with the program.

Jeffraham Prestonian

Linda -- Where did *I* mention Bush?
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Jeffraham Prestonian

Linda: "It was so blatently transparent that Kerry was only trying to score points."

With WHOM, may I ask?

"And Cheney was being polite, I'm sure he wanted to deck Edwards."

Why? Because Edwards expressed admiration with the Cheney family's openness and acceptance of their daughter? I don't get it.
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Jeffraham Prestonian

LupinIII -- I found Richard A. Clarke's _Against All Enemies_ a good insight into the U.S. counterterrorism efforts -- the failures and successes for three different administrations. It's in paperback now, or you could check your local library. It's a quick read.
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LupinIII

My friends really hate Clarke but I watched a PBS special on Cyber Crime and I thought he was a pretty smart guy. They say he was just insulting Bush to sell a book but wasn't he under oath when he critisized Bush?

NJDem

"it hurt Mrs. Cheney deeply that someone would mention that her lesbian daughter who is her husband's campaign manager is a lesbian."

Old news....
Like mentioning her husband was a draft-avoider/Defense Budget cutting advocate?
Well all knew that before.

Not meaning to compare the candidate with the Campaign mgr; but shet should be just as proud (and loving)of one as the other

Jeffraham Prestonian

LupinIII: "They say he was just insulting Bush to sell a book but wasn't he under oath when he critisized Bush?"

Yes, and he didn't spare Clinton, either. The guy's been working for Republican administrations most of his life. It's not a partisan thing -- it's just truth, and sadly, the truth seems to have an anti-Bush agenda.
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