As the great Taranto would write, "What would we do without electoral experts?!"
But seriously, I enjoyed the observation today of a totally non-partisan expert on American campaigns. He said that Kerry hasn't brought a single vote to the Democrats that wouldn't have gone to any of the other Democratic prospects, had they won the nomination. He's getting the baseline, Democratic/anti-Bush vote and no more.
It's the anti- that makes Kerry's vote freeze. Almost nobody wants to vote for him. That's his candidacy's near-fatal flaw.
Outside of the Millers (Zell & Dennis), what Gore 2000 voter is casting their ballot for Bush in 2004?
On the OTHER hand...
http://www.errolmorris.com/html/election04/election04_main.html
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 01:37 PM
"near-fatal flaw"?
The confident Tucker of the past would have been sure of vicotory and said "fatal flaw."
Posted by: Bill | October 28, 2004 at 01:39 PM
Tucker,
Since the begining of the horserace all Kerry had to do is remain standing in order to be a contender. However, not even Rove and Company could of spun this ending.
Bush gives the best reason ever in political history to not vote for a president!
380 tons High explosive known missing since March-May 2003. Sad part, media tapes show White House joking about the first reports.
Boston Red Sox win the World Series. Couldn't of guessed that in a hundred years, well maybe 86 anyway.
And we still have week to go with Crossfire's Carl Tucker is slamming the left for wanting to "Feed the Hunger" and "House the Poor." Why is the Right finally resorted to attacking Jesus Teachings themselve?
5 Days and counting until a serious public debate needs to be dealt with.
Posted by: Henry Schlatman | October 28, 2004 at 01:42 PM
Jeffraham,
I'm impressed, they actually "scraped together" between twenty to thirty people who claim to have voted for the President in 2000 and are now votoing for Kerry?
That will instill fear in the hearts of Republicans (chuckle)!
Posted by: jaybo | October 28, 2004 at 01:45 PM
jaybo: "I'm impressed, they actually "scraped together" between twenty to thirty people who claim to have voted for the President in 2000 and are now votoing for Kerry?"
I'm sure Errol found ALL of 'em, too.
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 01:46 PM
Tucker Where's the Blame America First AD? If the Dems can get an ad out in less than a day, so can we! This week America finally got an opportunity to see excatly who John Kerry is and always has been, a member of the blame America first party! Even before all the facts were in, this guy was on the stump blaming our country for what looks more and more everyday like the actions of Saddam Hussein's army!!!! Whether it's was Vietnam or the Cold War, This is what he always done, Blame America first. A man who doesn't believe in his country, Can Not lead his country! This guy has provided us with the PERFECT opportunity to define him for the last time!
Posted by: Elizabeth Hart | October 28, 2004 at 01:49 PM
Henry,
Make sure you stay current on the "latest" democratic talking points before you post here.
1. There is now conflicting evidence that undercuts the tonnage total.
2. The Pentagon has statesd that there may have been movements of materials from Iraq to Syria before the battle.
Slowly but surely this story is starting to unravel on The Senator. It will blow-up in his face before the weekend is over.
If the Senator makes a mistake in judgement on something as simple as discerning the facts on this incident, how can he be trusted to lead the nation?
Posted by: jaybo | October 28, 2004 at 01:52 PM
Elizabeth Hart, jaybo -- April 18th, 2003 (9 days after the fall of Baghdad):
http://kstp.com/article/stories/S3723.html?cat=1
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 01:54 PM
Jeffraham,
I guess we can finally agree on something ("I'm sure Errol found ALL of 'em, too.").
I believe that you are right!
Posted by: jaybo | October 28, 2004 at 01:55 PM
Jeffraham,
Again, the Channel 5 News story only proves that there were exposives filmed at that time. There is no indication that "380 tons" of material were there and whether or not the military disposed of the materials as they were cleaning the country of weapons.
Posted by: jaybo | October 28, 2004 at 02:00 PM
Elizabeth,
Please define the office of Our President, please.
I, for one want Our President to stand up and tell us the TRUTH above all. Your own candidate said it best and has yet to stand up and tell us the truth on anything. Responsiblity and Ownership of both the Good News and Bad News belongs to the American People, for that is the only way to the golden ring, not to those who fear change for the betterment of Mankind.
Posted by: Henry Schlatman | October 28, 2004 at 02:04 PM
So what you're saying, Tucker, is that this is essentially a referendum on the performance of the incumbant?
Yes, well, that's completely unlike every other second-term election in American history. Completely. Thank you for stunning us with these words of wisdom.
Posted by: Phoenician in a time of Romans | October 28, 2004 at 02:04 PM
jaybo: "Again, the Channel 5 News story only proves that there were exposives filmed at that time. There is no indication that "380 tons" of material were there and whether or not the military disposed of the materials as they were cleaning the country of weapons."
Right -- we only have the KSTP reporters' claims that the materiels FOUND on 4/18/2003 were LEFT UNSECURED. No one weighed them, apparently. Do you suppose they figured it was okay to leave what WAS found unsecured? I think they were ordered on to Baghdad, no matter what they would have PREFERRED to do.
What the video makes clear is that a non-trivial quantity of explosives WERE found at al Qaqaa AFTER the war began. Unless you want to claim that KSTP concocted this in the editing booth (which I fully expect any minute now).
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 02:10 PM
You won't believe this!
It just came up on Drudge.
"A top goverment source said from Washington that ABC withheld the final 15 minutes of the tape from the CIA -- the portion of the tape where the man warns of retribution for Americans electing Bush and Cheney."
Does ABC care at all about the country?
Posted by: jaybo | October 28, 2004 at 02:11 PM
Jeffraham,
Your ignorance of military operations is only exceeded by your blind political predisposition.
There would have been no way to move those materials on the roadways.
Are you really that stupid?
Posted by: jaybo | October 28, 2004 at 02:15 PM
jaybo: "I guess we can finally agree on something ("I'm sure Errol found ALL of 'em, too.").
"I believe that you are right!"
Here's a couple that Errol missed.
Republicans Endorsing John Kerry
Charley Reese, conservative columnist/journalist, Orlando Sentinel (1971-2001) -- May 17
Lee Iacocca, former Chrysler Chairman -- June 25
Russell E. Train, (interview) EPA chief under Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford -- Jul. '04
Various Republican Business Leaders -- Aug. 5
Gail Slocum, former Republican Mayor of Menlo Park, California -- Sept. '04
Clay Myers, Republican Secretary of State (1967-77) and State Treasurer (1977-84) for Oregon -- Sept. 1
Bill Rutherford, former Treasurer of Oregon and Chair of the Oregon Investment Council -- Sept. 1
George Comstock, Mayor of Portola Valley, California -- Sept. 1
Mike Cobb, former Republican Mayor of Palo Alto, California -- Sept. 8
Pete McCloskey (editorial here), former Republican Representative from California -- Sept. 8
John Eisenhower, son of former Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower -- Sept. 9
Steve May, former Republican state legislator from Arizona -- Sept. 10
Jon Silver, former Republican Mayor of Portola Valley, California -- Sept. 24
John A. Galbraith, former Republican Ohio General Assemblyman -- Sept. 28
David Catania, Republican (now Independent) Councilman from Washington, D.C. -- Sept. 29
Clyde Prestowitz, counselor to Ronald Reagan's Secretary of Commerce -- Oct. 6
Rick Russman, former Republican State Senator from New Hampshire -- Oct. 7
Marshall Wittmann, former communications director to Arizona Republican Senator John McCain -- Oct. 7
Richard Schmalensee, former Council of Economic Advisers member for President George H. W. Bush -- Oct. 12
Elmer L. Andersen, former Republican Governor of Minnesota (1961-63) -- Oct. 13
Ballard Morton, son of Thruston Morton, former Republican Senator from Kentucky -- Oct. 14
Anne Morton Kimberly, widow of Rogers C.B. Morton, former Republican Representative from Maryland -- Oct. 14
Tim Ashby, director, Office of Mexico and the Caribbean, U.S. Commerce Department under Reagan and Bush I -- Oct. 14
William Milliken, former Republican Governor of Michigan (1969-82) -- Oct. 18
Marlow Cook, former Republican Senator from Kentucky (1968-74) -- Oct. 20
Peter Gillette, former Republican Commissioner of Trade for Minnesota (1991-95) -- Oct. 20
Steve Chapman, conservative syndicated columnist, Chicago Tribune -- Oct. 24
Andrew Sullivan, conservative columnist, former editor of The New Republic -- Oct. 26 (on Jul. 25 he announced he wouldn't vote for Bush)
Jack Bogle Founder of the Vanguard Mutual Fund.
David Durenberger, former Senator from Minnesota (1978-95) -- Oct. 27 (endorsing Kerry health plan over Bush's)
Republicans Who Will Not Vote For George W. Bush
* Basil Akers, 1992 RNC NM delegate for George H. W. Bush and U.S. Army intelligence analyst in Vietnam, Oct. 25
* Bob Barr, former Republican Representative from Georgia (1995-2003) -- Oct. 14
* Robert L. Black, retired Republican judge of the Ohio First District Court of Appeals -- Oct. 13
* John H. Buchanan, former Republican Congressman from Alabama -- Oct. 4
* Lincoln Chafee, Republican Senator from Rhode Island -- Oct. 4
* John Dean, former White House Counsel to former Republican President Nixon -- Apr. '04
* Paul Findley, former Republican Representative from Illinois -- Apr. '04
* A. Linwood Holton former Republican Governor of Virginia (1970-74) -- Aug. 29
* Log Cabin Republicans -- Sept. 8
* Paul O'Neill, former Treasury Secretary to Republican President George W. Bush -- Jan. '04
* Richie Robb, mayor of South Charleston, WV (and 2004 Electoral College WV Republican elector) -- Sep. '04
* William Saletan, "liberal Republican" columnist for Slate -- Sept. 1
* Karl W. B. Schwarz, very conservative Republican from Arkansas -- Oct. 20 (see also [1])
* Walter Olson, Bush 2000 campaign advisor -- Oct. 26
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 02:17 PM
Jeffreham,
Excellent catch of the news.
jaybo,
I've been an Independent since 1980. Therefore, I have my own point of views on the issues. However, I am tried of seeing Rapitalists (One who praises the God Almighty Dollar over Everything else) trying to take over our Capitalistic Society.
That is what gets me about most republicans. They want a smaller government, but they refuse to allow our capitalist economy to expand to include the 5% of our population. Until, we figure out how to make it so every American can be Economically Secure there will be no National Security. Mr. Snow US Camber of Commerce said those very words today before he rephased his answer. Yet, even you know that statement to be true.
Posted by: Henry Schlatman | October 28, 2004 at 02:17 PM
haybo: "Your ignorance of military operations is only exceeded by your blind political predisposition.
"There would have been no way to move those materials on the roadways.
"Are you really that stupid?"
Stupid enough to believe that in the three sentences above, you have described a military rationale for the impossibility of securing or destroying what WAS found, as demonstrated by KSTP's video? Not hardly.
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 02:19 PM
JP- Here are a couple of other people (besides the Millers)who voted for Gore in 2000 and are voting for Bush in 2004 ...
Ed Koch - former mayor of New York City
Ron Silver - Actor
Posted by: forgainst | October 28, 2004 at 02:24 PM
forgainst -- Still lookin' a bit lopsided, t'me. Thoughts?
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Posted by: Jeffraham Prestonian | October 28, 2004 at 02:26 PM
JP - here are my happy thoughts ... I type too slow to list all the names I have available ... one more for now ... current Youngstown, Ohio Mayor George McKelvey ...btw ... Youngstown is a Dem stronghold ... for list of the dems on the Dems for Bush steering committee ... go to www.georgewbush.com/democrats ... note that is just the steering committee ...
Posted by: forgainst | October 28, 2004 at 02:35 PM
Jeffraham - still making noise on this subject? The issue doesn't work.
During the blood oath ceremony (man, that whole knife in the palm thing hurt!) I was told that secretly, we left all kinds of weapons laying around in Iraq, just to give the other side a fighting chance. I was also told that Bush was in Cambodia on the same Christmas as John Kerry on a secret mission to find WMD there:)
Good to be in Bush country!
Posted by: wasted potential | October 28, 2004 at 02:36 PM
wp- you took the blood oath too ... did they make you drink it? Thewy made me sacrifice a bat, then howl at the moon ...
Posted by: forgainst | October 28, 2004 at 02:38 PM
We are talking about specific material stamped with IAEA labels! None of which is evident in the eyewitness news 5 report. Like I said Kerry is a member of the blame America first party!
Posted by: Elizabeth | October 28, 2004 at 03:31 PM
Sorry Elizabeth - but George W. Bush is NOT America. He may be the President as ordered by the Supreme Court, but is does not represent us all and he is not the King of this land. The "blame America first" line speaks to a dangerous mindset that believes opposition is anti-American. Do you really want to live in a world where everyone believes in the same thing?
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." - Theodore Roosevelt
Posted by: Elijah | October 28, 2004 at 03:44 PM