As the great Taranto would write, "What would we do without electoral experts?!"
But seriously, I enjoyed the observation today of a totally non-partisan expert on American campaigns. He said that Kerry hasn't brought a single vote to the Democrats that wouldn't have gone to any of the other Democratic prospects, had they won the nomination. He's getting the baseline, Democratic/anti-Bush vote and no more.
It's the anti- that makes Kerry's vote freeze. Almost nobody wants to vote for him. That's his candidacy's near-fatal flaw.